You've Got To Ask Yourself One Question: 'Do I Feel Lucky? ' Well, Do Ya, Punk? ... BTC at a crossroads here

After a pretty magical 6 months (or longer depending on your investment horizon) BTC is at a crossroads. The title of this post, a quote from the 1970s movie classic Dirty Harry, summarizes the situation quite well. The way I see it is that we are at a similar situation to sitting at a blackjack table and deciding whether to bet on red or black. a 50/50 proposition.

If BTC can hold this $44,000-45,000 level, then we have a nice 35-40% upside back to around $60,000. If not, we should first see BTC flirt with the $40,000 price point. A break below that would mean a very possible 40% retracement to the $24,000 level. As the old adage goes, a picture tells a thousand words. Here you go:

Not surprisingly, although Ethereum has continued to outperform, the ETC/BTC cross rate is also at a very interesting point. Also a 50/50 price proposition on the ratio. We're up 15% or so from the last update back on May 3 (https://thrivingwithinterest.blogspot.com/2021/05/ethereum-vs-bitcoin-forget-bezos-and.html). But before we can aim for the 0.10 ratio, we might have a bit of work to do. That being said, ETH 2.0 does make ETH more valuable than a few months ago. Again, a picture tells 1,000 words so here we are:

So the logical question is what to do here? Well the answer, like always, depends on your time horizon.

• Short term investors: hang tight to your BTC, or buy some BTC, with a nice tight stop at just below $44,000.
• Short term investors: take profit on the ETH/BTC cross.
• Long term investors: start accumulating more BTC at these levels and continue adding to the ETH/BTC cross, especially on any dips.

For the Bitcoin deniers, here is your chance to rub it in to your Bitcoin believers friend's faces. The long attended correction is happening, but as we have seen before, steep falls  (up to -80%) have always been followed by new all time highs. The gauntlet has been thrown and we shall see who comes out ahead in the second half of this year and beyond.

P.S. It's interesting to note that many of the DeFi currencies have decoupled a bit from the BTC orbit and have not corrected nearly as much. This is a good sign and another indication that some differentiation is beginning to take place, rather than all babies being thrown out with the bathwater.

Bonne Chance all (and happy birthday to my dearest son, Misha!).